TURNOUT in this year’s Republican primaries has surged compared with previous contests, whereas the number of Democrats trudging to the polls is well down in relation to the party’s last contested fight in 2008. Our chart looks at voter turnout now and in the states where there was still a realistic challenge to the front-runner at this stage of the primaries in 2012 for the Republicans and 2008 for the Democrats. For example, Texas, which voted on March 1st this year, is left out because the Republican primary in 2012 took place in late May, by which time Mitt Romney had already won the nomination. (Democrats held a convoluted primary and caucus in Texas in 2008.) According to Pew, Republican turnout has averaged around 17% of eligible voters in 2016 so far, higher than the 10% recorded by the party at the same point in 2012 and the 11% in 2008. For Democrats the average is 12%. That is well below the 20% chalked up by early March in 2008, but, leaving that year aside, primary turnout is the highest in the party since 1992. One simple explanation for more Republican engagement is that Donald Trump is driving people to the polls, even if two-thirds have not voted for him. In New Hampshire, half of eligible voters cast a ballot in either of the party primaries, mostly in the Republican one. Primary turnout in Michigan broke records in the state (see chart below); ...
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